Thanks - an interesting read.
I suspect the under/over reporting of CV-19 as a Cause of Death on a Death Certificate (and therefore in the RBDM data which forms part of the overall Government numbers) changes markedly on or around 25th March when the CoronaVirus Act 2020 came in to UK Law. Previously, Doctors outside a hospital certifying a death in the community (ie at home or in a Nursing Home) were guided that the proximate CoD should be e.g. 'heart failure' or 'pneumonia' in the absence of a positive CV-19 test, which of course the deceased would not have had outside a hospital environment. After 25th March, BMA were very quick to guide GPs that CV-19 could be given as CoD on a Death Certificate / Cremation Form if it was a probable cause even in the absence of a positive test. Given the high number of Death Certificates my wife is signing right now, there isn't time to split hairs about which patients definitely died of CV-19 and which patients probably died from CV-19 but almost definitely died with CV-19. So currently most GPs would be erring on the side of over-reporting CV-19 as CoD.
