Originally Posted by Image
Gambalunga ....do you really think the designers of the modelling software are unaware of the lag between starting isolation and the reservoir of already infected people running down and slowing the numbers entering the health system?....but us lads on a car forum are much better informed ..... and if the dieing and recovery 'holes' were the same size, that would mean a 50% fatality rate ....that would be a disastrous situation but doesn't seem to be anything like the case

K

Well If we take the glass to contain only those hospitalised there is still a lot of water in the glass and it is not coming out the holes as fast as it is being poured in at the top. The hole for deaths is actually slightly smaller.

This is from the official report at 5 pm on Sunday.

Quote
In Italy, since the beginning of the Coronavirus epidemic, 24,747 people have contracted the Sars-CoV-2 virus (3,590 more than yesterday, the percentage increase is 17%. Yesterday it was 19.8%). Of these, 1,809 died (+368 in day, +25%, yesterday the percentage increase was 19.8%) and 2,335 healed (+369). 1,672 people are in intensive care (+154). Currently there are 20,603 positive subjects (the count rises to 24,747 - as mentioned above - if in the count there are also the dead and healed).


It should be stressed that less than 50%, 9663 people out of 24,747 have been hospitalised. They are not classified as cured until they no longer return a positive swab. About 125,000 swab tests have now been performed so about 20% of those tested have returned a positive result.

Last edited by Gambalunga; 15/03/20 11:38 PM.
Peter

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