Originally Posted by Peter J
we don't yet know if it will behave as a second winter flu, or like the 1919/20 Spanish flu. In the latter case expect between 300,000 and 600,000 additional deaths.


The 1919 H1N1 pandemic infected 27% of the world's population and had a 10% death rate. If Coronavirus is that bad we'd be looking at ~ 200 million dead worldwide.

Let's hope early 21st century management techniques are better than those in the early 20th century. In the UK the NHS would be completely overwhelmed. We have four High Consequence Airborne Infectious Disease Centres but each is designed to handle two patients at a time and at most can handle four. After that, patients will have to be handled in isolation wards in normal NHS hospitals, which are currently at around 98 % bed occupancy.

Last edited by Hamwich; 09/02/20 11:57 AM. Reason: correction

Tim H.
1986 4/4 VVTi Sport, 2002 LR Defender, 2022 Mini Cooper SE